Head coach Marvin Lewis of the Cincinnati Bengals has had success in Cincinnati, on the field, but far more in public relations. After four years, what do statistics and objective analyses suggest about Marvin? Here's a look based on Marvin's showing of critical qualities of a great head coach.

 

Ability to get the team to win

 

Perhaps the biggest argument in favor of Marvin Lewis is his record since taking over as Bengal head coach. Replacing Dick LeBeau, whose tenure netted a 27% winning clip by the Bengals and a 2-14 final season, Marvin's first team finished 8-8 and Marvin has coached the team to winning 55% of its games over the last four seasons. In 2005 the team made the playoffs for the first time since 1990, and each of Marvin's first four years as coach the team finished at least 8-8 (although they finished with that record three of the years), a feat only reached once by any of his three predecessors.

 

Career progression and ability to win with what you've got

 

One mark of a great coach is to be able to improve over the course of his career. Bruce Coslet, former Bengals' head coach, for example, did the opposite. His first partial season the team was 7-2. The following year the team was 7-9, then fell to 3-13 and 4-12. Under Lewis three of the winning percentages have been identical so it is difficult to identify any pattern.

 

There is a way, though, to at least recognize if the teams have been better. It is legitimate to say that all NFL coaches know how to diagram plays and teach them to the team. There is not a terribly varied spectrum of abilities when it comes to coaches in this respect. Coaches are most valuable in the ability to call the right plays at the right time to pull out wins. It can be argued that a team's points scored versus points allowed ratio is more a reflection on the talent of the athletes rather than on the coach, while the winning percentage is more influenced by the sideline general. Given this idea, a good indicator of a coach's influence on his team is the difference between the team's winning percentage and a prediction of its winning percentage based on its points scored, in baseball often called the Pythagorean method of evaluation. The higher a team's winning percentage versus its Pythagorean prediction, the better the team is at making key plays to win games it "shouldn't" win. This is a positive reflection on the coach.

 

In Marvin's case, there has again been no shown progression, and his overall career average difference is close to zero, the mark of an average coach, although it should be noted that it is slightly above that mark, pointing to a generalization that he is above average, but not spectacular as a coach. Using this method, his predecessor Dick LeBeau finished just below zero.

 

	Win %	PF	PA	PF / TP	Pred. win%	Diff.
2003	0.5	346	384	0.473973	0.434932	0.065068
2004	0.5	374	372	0.50134	0.503351	-0.00335
2005	0.6875	421	350	0.546044	0.61511	0.07239
2006	0.5	373	331	0.52983	0.574574	-0.07457
Avg.	0.546875	378.5	359.25	0.512797	0.531992	0.014883

           

Marvin's success, it should be pointed out, is likely due in large part to a successful group of players. His 2006 team was called "underachieving", a negative reflection on the coach. Still, his ability to win, or at least have .500 seasons, while predecessors could not, is impressive.              

 

Big games

 

At Ohio State, head coach Jim Tressel is often called a successful coach because the Buckeyes won five of the first six times he coached them against Michigan, and because they won four of the first five bowl games they played in under him. One meter of a great coach is an ability to beat rivals and win in the postseason.

 

Marvin Lewis' team has only played one postseason game, a loss that was clouded by the early injury of Cincinnati's star quarterback. During Lewis' tenure, though, Cincinnati has been in playoff contention three of four possible times. In "playoffs" for the "playoffs", or final regular season games the Bengals have had to win in order to secure a playoff birth or home field advantage at the end of the season, Marvin's teams are 0-3. Over the last two games of each of his seasons, Marvin's teams are 2-6. During the three seasons the Bengals had the ability to secure a playoff spot or higher playoff position in their final two games the Bengals are 0-6 in those games. This is Marvin's most notable shortcoming – the inability for his teams to close out seasons, although it should again be noted that this is not entirely, or even to any large extent, his fault.

 

In "big games" on Monday night, nationally televised, the Bengals are 1-1 under Lewis.

 

The Bengals' two biggest rivals are Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Against Pittsburgh Marvin's teams have gone 3-6, and against the Browns 6-2. But those numbers do not take into account the opponent's record. Using the same Pythagorean idea as used before, we can see the Bengals have performed below expectations in five of the eight season series' against its rivals.

 

		Season PF	Season PA	Pct.	Expectation	Diff.
2003	Cleveland	35	36	0.492958	0.575	-0.08204
	Pittsburgh	34	37	0.478873	0.55	-0.07113
2004	Cleveland	75	82	0.477707	0.6	-0.12229
	Pittsburgh	31	47	0.397436	0.325	0.072436
2005	Cleveland	50	33	0.60241	0.625	-0.02259
	Pittsburgh	68	89	0.433121	0.5	-0.06688
2006	Cleveland	64	17	0.790123	0.6	0.190123
	Pittsburgh	45	43	0.511364	0.5	0.011364
					Average	-0.01138

 

"Motivational ability" and "ability to control the team"

 

There is something to be said for a coach who turns a 2-14 team into a playoff team two years later. Certainly some degree of credit goes to the head coach for that turnaround. Motivational ability can also be measured to an extent by streakiness. A coach who is able to effectively motivate and "control" his team should ensure that losing streaks do not happen often. Of course, schedules and injuries can contribute, but in general, it is the coach's responsibility to ensure a team does not fall in to a "slump." Winning streaks coupled with losing streaks show that a team is not "consistent" or focused, that its spirits are going up and down and there may be fighting or tension causing it highs and lows. Put simply, Marvin's teams have been streaky, a negative sign for the coach.

 

Overall, Marvin Lewis' teams win an average of 7.5 of their 16 games as part of a streak, that is, either following a win or a loss with the same result. During the three 8-8 years the average was 8 exactly, much higher than the league average of just over 6. No fan quarrels with a winning streak, but for an 8-8 team, winning streaks and losing streaks are bad indicators. A team that jockeys back and forth between winning and losing streaks certainly has some negative issues. A team that experiences winning streaks that finishes 8-8 is either overplaying or underplaying, and if we assume the winning streaks are the "true" team, then why does it lose so much? The coach is one of many reasons. And if the losing streaks indicate the "true" team, then its record, often attributed as a success of the coach, is better than the team, meaning the coach has work to do.

 

But perhaps most notably, in the off-season of 2006 eight Bengals were arrested for various offenses, including Chris Henry multiply times. When less severe disciplinary problems faced Ohio State in 2004 many called for Jim Tressel's job. The reality is that these incidents have little to do with the coach, but unlike most coaches Marvin escaped almost all blame for the incidents. But if fans like to talk about clichés (which Bill James calls the "soldiers of ignorance") like "togetherness" and ability to "help the players grow," this incident does not speak positively of Marvin. Chris Henry would have been kicked off many teams. He stayed on the Bengals and had a good year. So not only do his arrests reflect Marvin Lewis to a small degree, his play has bolstered the team's, and thus Marvin's record and reputation, meaning that if Marvin is at fault for not kicking Henry off the team, Henry's contributions should also be noted as helping Lewis' reputation.

 

The Verdict

 

A good but not extraordinary coach. To many Bengal fans he is god on earth. And he is rarely criticized. And much of that is for good reason. But his teams' performances against rivals, the streakiness, the failure to win important games, and his only slightly above average Pythagorean difference number suggest that he should not be immune from all criticism. How long will 8-8 be good enough?